Capital market statement from Judith Haßlbäck, fund manager "Bonds, Emerging Markets" at Raffeisen Capital Management

While the razor-thin margin may still cause a stir and trigger speculation about possible irregularities, a reversal of the result in a potential recount is highly unlikely. However, the unexpectedly close result is a sign of strength for the opposition, and thus a signal of the need for broader consensus to ensure governability.

Razor-thin victory for right-wing conservative abelardo – peso appreciates

Markets and investors had increasingly priced in this election outcome, but the confirmation should nevertheless have a positive impact on Colombian assets and the Colombian peso: The Colombian peso could continue to rise against both the US dollar and the euro, and local peso-denominated bonds could see additional price gains.

A government under De la Espriella offers the opportunity to improve the investment climate by reducing institutional uncertainties and increasing predictability and regulatory certainty. It should also focus on fiscal discipline and measures to attract foreign direct investment. Overall, the market is optimistic about a De la Espriella government, but his cabinet composition will still be important for advancing economic reforms. A turnaround in ratings, however, will require clear, sustainable changes in budget policy.

Under his government, relations with the European Union are expected to take a more pragmatic direction. Given his economically liberal orientation, trade remains a focus; however, his tough security policy and his proximity to Donald Trump could lead to diplomatic tensions.